What is the chance of finding the Queen of Spades among 5 cards drawn at random from a standard deck of 52? Further down on this page, you'll get a chance to submit your answer. To study the question, you might also consider the opposite scenario: avoiding that Queen 5 times in a row -- as you draw a first card from the full deck, then a second from the diminished deck, and so on.

Though risk has always been around, an actual theory of it began only in the 17th century -- among gamblers with a flair for mathematics. It was soon applied to more serious "games" of chance, such as insurance against shipwreck and fire -- where the underwriter is betting that disaster will not occur, while the insured wins his "benefits" only if he loses his ship or house.

From these simple beginnings, probability theory has grown into one of the major branches of modern mathematics, with applications stretching from statistics to various parts of physics, such as quantum mechanics and thermodynamics.

Since some phenomena can be described probabilistically (cf. the random-walk model of diffusion shown on the left) as well as "classically" (by differential equations), probabilists are increasingly enticed to attack and solve problems in "classical" mathematics. Of course, they also delve into the mysteries of finance and economics (cf. the market confusion shown on the right) -- closing the circle to the ancestral gamblers.

The Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences (PIMS) is a non-profit organisation supported by five universities of Western Canada and dedicated to the promotion of mathematical research -- but it also has a programme of education and public awareness.

This contest is now over. Our thanks to the participants. The winner of the draw is Jordan Wan.