PIMS-UAlberta Distinguished Lecture: Sebastian Schreiber

Stochastic fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and a host of other environmental factors occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As the survival and reproduction of organisms, whether they be plants, animals, or viruses, depend on these environmental factors, these environmental fluctuations drive fluctuations in population abundances. This leads to a fundamental question in population biology: ``Under what conditions do environmental fluctuations hinder or facilitate species persistence?’’ This question is particularly pressing in light of global climate models predicting increasing temporal variation in many climatic variables over the next century. One fruitful approach to tackling this question is the development and analysis of stochastic models accounting for species interactions, population structure, and environmental stochasticity. I will discuss recent progress on a mathematical theory of persistence and extinction for such models. The theory will be illustrated with examples involving checkerspot butterflies in California, northern pike in Lake Windermere, and a Kansas prairie.