PIMS-CORDS SFU Operations Research Seminar: Jeremy Chiu

Despite only comprising about a quarter of the total population of Canada, foreign-born individuals bear about three-quarters of the burden of active tuberculosis (TB) cases. To investigate the impact of immigration on the burden of TB among foreign-born Canadians, we develop an SEIR-compartment model that distinguishes between actively infected, latently infected, and uninfected individuals. Unknown parameters are calibrated to reports on the incidence and prevalence of active TB in Canada. We validate our model by comparing model computed quantities to other estimates of tuberculosis burden among foreign-born Canadians, including an estimate of the prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) among immigrants entering Canada. Our model predicts that among the foreign-born population, Canada will not meet the End TB 2035 goal of reducing incidence by 90% compared to 2015, primarily due to the activation of foreign-born Canadians with LTBI.